Lighten
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 56
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |