13
Panchita
3yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 58
Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#17
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 7-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 16th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |