Sterling Cat

3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 69

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#14

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#14

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Delaware Park	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-13	Delaware Park	?	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2026-06-25	Delaware Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-04	Penn National	?	9th	7th	+2	2.8
2026-05-14	Laurel Park	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-01-17	Laurel Park	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 8-17 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength1%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
17/01/2026	8th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
14/05/2026	1st	9/2	76%	100%	+0.24
04/06/2026	9th	33/1	0%	20%	+0.20
25/06/2026	7th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
13/08/2026	7th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00
29/08/2026	8th	66/1	0%	13%	+0.13