5
Newyearsblockparty
8yo Horse · 8-13 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/08/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |