3
Catch The Smoke
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 16/07/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 25/07/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 80% | -0.18 |