Roxton
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Meadowlands | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 28/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |