Thick As Thieves
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 68
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Penn National | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 17/09/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 64% | -0.19 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |