1
Castagna
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |