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2

Didn't It Rain

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 74

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 29/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark29/04/2025 · OR 69 par29/04C9OR 69C6 @ Churchill Downs 25/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/06/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Ellis Park 08/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/08/2025 · OR 85 par8/08C6OR 85C9 @ Keeneland 08/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 83 · 6f 121 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 83 parC7 @ Penn National 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 73 par3/04C7OR 73C7 @ Penn National 02/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 124 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 72 parC7 @ Penn National 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 69 · 1m 120 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 69 par22/05C7OR 69C5 @ Penn National 04/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 72 · 1m70y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Penn National 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 76 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 76 par12/08C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Penn National?1st-1th+2
2026-06-04Penn National?6th4th+2
2026-05-22Penn National?1st1st0
2026-05-02Penn National?6th6th0
2026-04-03Penn National?1st1st0
2025-10-08Keeneland?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/048/1022/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20252nd11/271%83%+0.12
25/06/20256th20/10%50%+0.50
08/08/20254th20/10%70%+0.70
08/10/20252nd6/492%88%-0.05
03/04/20261st10/1195%100%+0.05
02/05/20266th7/282%0%-0.82
22/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
04/06/20266th15/261%50%-0.11
12/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06