Ridgie
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 17/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |