4
Thea
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 90
Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength98%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 26/02/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |