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3

Violet's Charm

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 79

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m Fas 119 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 57 par10/12C9OR 57C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m39y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 64 parC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 65 · 1m Fm 119 · below its mark01/02/2026 · OR 65 par1/02C9OR 65C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 59 · 1m39y 119 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 59 parC7 @ Delaware Park 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 64 · 1m70y 117 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 64 par23/05C7OR 64C7 @ Delaware Park 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 65 · 1m110y 119 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 65 parC7 @ Delaware Park 21/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 74 · 1m 119 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 74 par21/07C7OR 74C5 @ Delaware Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 1m70y 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Delaware Park 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 1m 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par5/09C5OR 80projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Delaware Park?1st-1th+2
2026-08-21Delaware Park?3rd1st+2
2026-07-21Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-06-17Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2026-05-23Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-02-11Tampa Bay Downs?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1211/0221/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20252nd40/10%83%+0.83
11/01/20268th33/10%0%0.00
01/02/20269th25/10%11%+0.11
11/02/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
23/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
17/06/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
21/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
21/08/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
05/09/20261st15/261%100%+0.39