7
Caughtubysurprise
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 53
Fairview · Racing Today Apprentice Open Maiden · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |