IvyArcIvyArc
8

Double Distilled

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 20

Fairview · Racing Today Apprentice Open Maiden · 6f 211y

#8

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains a maiden after 13 Flat runs. 25/1, first run since leaving Jmt Stewart when last of 12 in maiden at this course (5f) 82 days ago. Significantly back up in trip. Very hard to make a case for.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 9.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 10/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 12110/11C8C8 @ Kenilworth 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 132C8 @ Kenilworth 03/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1323/12C85 @ Kenilworth 17/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Kenilworth 04/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1194/01C8C5 @ Durbanville 21/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS28/02C5C8 @ Kenilworth 15/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 118C8 @ Fairview 10/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 4f214y Std 13210/07C8projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Fairview?12th12th0
2026-04-15Kenilworth?9th9th0
2026-02-28Kenilworth?8th4th+4
2026-01-21Durbanville?2nd-2th+4
2026-01-04Kenilworth?4th4th0
2025-12-17Kenilworth58th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/1117/1228/0210/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/11/20259th100/10%27%+0.27
15/11/20255th50/10%20%+0.20
03/12/20258th50/10%13%+0.13
17/12/20258th100/10%0%0.00
04/01/20264th66/10%70%+0.70
21/01/20262nd28/10%86%+0.86
28/02/20268th7/163%13%-0.51
15/04/20269th10/147%0%-0.47
10/07/202612th20/10%0%0.00