6
Desert Cloud
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 67
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Fm 90 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength46%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 03/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |