3
Haze And Smoke
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 70
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Fm 90 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-06 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 14/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |