4
Icy Lancaster
5yo Mare · 9-2 · OR 60
Fairview · youcanbetonus! Mr 74 Handicap · 4f 214y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |