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2

Silva City

4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 86

Fairview · Racing240 Middle Stakes · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 6/1, creditable second of 8 in minor event at this C&D 47 days ago. Needs a couple of these to falter.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Fairview 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f Std 13026/09C6C0 @ Fairview 31/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR - · 7f210y GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS29/11C1C5 @ Fairview 06/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 6f102y Std 132C1 @ Fairview 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS20/02C1C4 @ Fairview 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Std 1315/06C5C1 @ Fairview 10/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Std 12814/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Fairview?2nd3rd−1
2026-07-10Fairview?11th7th+4
2026-06-05Fairview?2nd2nd0
2026-03-20Fairview?4th3rd+1
2026-02-20Fairview?4th0th+4
2026-01-06Fairview?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/096/015/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20253rd7/491%60%-0.31
31/10/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
29/11/202515th25/10%0%0.00
06/01/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
20/02/20264th14/126%0%-0.26
20/03/20264th18/15%40%+0.35
05/06/20262nd28/10%83%+0.83
10/07/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
14/08/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15