3
Tintamarre
5yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 81
Fairview · Racing240 Middle Stakes · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 05/11/2025 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 63% | -0.32 |
| 22/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 24/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |