8
Welsh Starlet
5yo Mare · 8-3 · OR 44
Fairview · Tab 4Racing App Apprentice Classified Stakes · 1m 2f 206y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-03 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength41%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |
| 27/02/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 06/03/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 7% | -0.19 |
| 03/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |