1
Garden Sun
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 34
Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 68 Handicap · 1m 1f 208y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength89%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 25/09/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |