10
Gutsy Baby
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 27
Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 68 Handicap · 1m 1f 208y
#11
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength2%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 08/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 75% | +0.20 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |