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2

San Quintin

8yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 63

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 68 Handicap · 1m 1f 208y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

96%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner. Latest win here in July. 5/1, creditable third of 12 in minor event at this C&D 47 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength98%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fairview 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f206y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASS14/11C5C5 @ Fairview 27/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f210y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 10/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 12110/04C7C5 @ Fairview 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m2f206y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m1f98y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASS15/05C5C6 @ Fairview 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f98y Std 116 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS24/06C5C7 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 129C5 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Fairview?3rd0th+3
2026-07-31Fairview?1st1st−0
2026-06-24Fairview?4th1st+3
2026-06-08Fairview?3rd2nd+1
2026-05-15Fairview?1st-2th+3
2026-04-24Fairview?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1124/0424/0614/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/11/20256th13/266%50%-0.16
27/03/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
10/04/202611th40/10%17%+0.17
24/04/20262nd66/10%90%+0.90
15/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
08/06/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
24/06/20264th4/179%77%-0.02
31/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
14/08/20263rd4/179%82%+0.03