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8

Tori's Girl

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 50

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 68 Handicap · 1m 1f 208y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Good third of 6 in handicap at this course (9.4f, 14/10) 21 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Durbanville 09/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 1179/09C8C8 @ Fairview 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 132C7 @ Fairview 12/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12312/12C7C8 @ Fairview 29/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 132C8 @ Fairview 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m2f206y Std 1159/01C8C7 @ Fairview 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 122C7 @ Fairview 27/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Sft 116 · HIGHER CLASS27/02C7C5 @ Fairview 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Std 115 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f98y Std 1259/09C7projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Fairview?3rd3rd−0
2026-08-14Fairview?5th2nd+3
2026-02-27Fairview?3rd3rd+0
2026-02-13Fairview?2nd2nd−0
2026-01-09Fairview?1st2nd−1
2025-12-29Fairview?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0929/1227/029/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/09/20258th22/10%22%+0.22
28/11/20257th28/10%33%+0.33
12/12/20258th4/179%0%-0.79
29/12/20257th18/15%25%+0.20
09/01/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
13/02/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
27/02/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
14/08/20265th33/10%64%+0.64
09/09/20263rd11/893%60%-0.33