3
Vila Vicosa
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 71
Fairview · www.tab.co.za Mr 78 Handicap · 7f 210y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength73%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 10th | 10th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength94%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 22/06/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |