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5

Alex Miller

5yo Mare · 9-5 · OR 65

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 2 October Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

73%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Latest win here in August. Creditable second of 5 in handicap at this course (8f, 7/2) 21 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Fairview 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 6f102y Std 13819/12C7C7 @ Fairview 23/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 138C6 @ Fairview 27/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS27/02C6C7 @ Fairview 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f102y Std 137C7 @ Fairview 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS15/05C7C7 @ Fairview 24/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Std 13717/07C7C7 @ Fairview 21/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f102y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS9/09C6projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Fairview?2nd1st+1
2026-08-21Fairview?1st1st+0
2026-07-17Fairview?2nd3rd−0
2026-06-24Fairview?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-15Fairview?4th4th+0
2026-03-27Fairview?2nd3rd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1227/0317/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20254th10/382%73%-0.10
23/01/20266th3/184%44%-0.40
27/02/20266th14/126%64%+0.38
27/03/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
15/05/20264th15/261%70%+0.09
24/06/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
17/07/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
21/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
09/09/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07