6
Bella Valentina
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 44
Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 2 October Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength61%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 8.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Greyville | 4 | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | 4 | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Scottsville | 4 | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-11-25 | Greyville | 4 | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2025-11-16 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength5%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 16/11/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/11/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 01/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/07/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |