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Morfeliha

4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 70

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 2 October Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

22%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest win here in April. 4/1, good second of 7 in handicap at this course (6f) 26 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Kenilworth 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS10/12C55 @ Kenilworth 04/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Durbanville 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS14/0245 @ Durbanville 04/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1343/04C7C6 @ Fairview 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 08/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 5f212y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS8/06C6C6 @ Fairview 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f212y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/09C7projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Fairview?2nd2nd+0
2026-07-03Fairview?5th5th+0
2026-06-08Fairview?5th4th+1
2026-05-08Fairview?2nd2nd+0
2026-04-03Fairview?1st2nd−0
2026-03-04Durbanville55th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/124/038/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/12/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
04/01/202613th4/179%0%-0.79
14/02/20267th17/255%14%-0.41
04/03/20265th14/126%33%+0.07
03/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
08/05/20262nd13/266%88%+0.22
08/06/20265th7/282%60%-0.22
03/07/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
04/09/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02