Northern Kitten

6yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 27

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 2 October Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y

#13

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▬

Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-10	Fairview	?	8th	8th	−0	1.7
2026-07-17	Fairview	?	13th	14th	−0	1.0
2026-07-03	Fairview	?	9th	10th	−0	1.0
2026-05-26	Vaal	?	12th	13th	−0	1.0
2026-05-04	Vaal	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.6
2026-03-26	Vaal	?	5th	5th	+0	5.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength4%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/01/2026	1st	10/1	47%	100%	+0.53
10/02/2026	9th	17/2	55%	27%	-0.28
12/03/2026	7th	33/1	0%	54%	+0.54
26/03/2026	5th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
04/05/2026	5th	9/2	76%	43%	-0.33
26/05/2026	12th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
03/07/2026	9th	16/1	16%	33%	+0.18
17/07/2026	13th	20/1	0%	8%	+0.08
10/08/2026	8th	40/1	0%	30%	+0.30