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4

Potenza

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Friday 2 October Fm 74 Handicap (F & M) · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 5/2, third of 5 in handicap at this course (8f) 21 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 02/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1352/11C8C8 @ Fairview 12/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 123C8 @ Fairview 29/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 13029/12C8C6 @ Fairview 20/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Fairview 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 12313/03C?C7 @ Fairview 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f210y Std 1398/05C7C6 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 7f210y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS9/09C6projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Fairview?3rd2nd+1
2026-07-31Fairview?2nd2nd+0
2026-05-08Fairview?3rd4th−0
2026-03-27Fairview?7th7th+0
2026-03-13Fairview?4th4th0
2026-02-20Fairview?4th4th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1120/028/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/20259th28/10%11%+0.11
12/12/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
29/12/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
20/02/20264th12/137%79%+0.42
13/03/20264th3/184%70%-0.14
27/03/20267th7/282%45%-0.36
08/05/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08
31/07/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
09/09/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37