5
Esther's Salad
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 59
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 78% | +0.15 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |