4
Lifeisbutadream
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 80
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | BHA76 | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |