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6

Lipan Law

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 75

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 28/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 77 par28/11C8OR 77C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 80 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 80 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 25/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 73 par25/05C5OR 73C5 @ Finger Lakes 08/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 122 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 71 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 71 par8/07C5OR 71C8 @ Finger Lakes 22/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 70 · 1m Fas 122 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 05/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 76 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 76 par5/08C5OR 76C5 @ Finger Lakes 31/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 77 · 1m Slo 122 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 76 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 76 par15/09C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-08-31Finger Lakes?1st1st0
2026-08-05Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-07-22Finger Lakes?2nd5th−3
2026-07-08Finger Lakes?4th4th0
2026-06-08Finger Lakes?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/118/065/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/11/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
26/12/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
25/05/20264th6/168%40%-0.28
08/06/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
08/07/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
22/07/20262nd6/594%75%-0.19
05/08/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
31/08/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/09/20263rd9/276%50%-0.26