1
Rumint
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -6.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/02/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 03/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 19/08/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |