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3

Troubled Luck

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 67

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 70y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 60 · 1m Slo 123 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 60 par20/02C8OR 60C8 @ Aqueduct 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 62 · 6f Gd 123 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Aqueduct 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 68 · 1m 123 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 68 par27/03C8OR 68C8 @ Aqueduct 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m Slo 123 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 64 parC7 @ Belmont At The Big A 07/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 58 · 7f 121 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 58 par7/05C7OR 58C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 52 · 7f 121 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 52 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 51 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 51 par21/07C8OR 51C8 @ Finger Lakes 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 1m 122 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 62 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 01/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 61 · 1m70y 124 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 61 par1/09C8OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Finger Lakes?1st4th−3
2026-08-11Finger Lakes?1st4th−3
2026-07-21Finger Lakes?2nd5th−3
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?8th11th−3
2026-05-07Belmont At The Big A?6th8th−2
2026-04-26Aqueduct?8th11th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0226/0421/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20266th33/10%0%0.00
13/03/20264th20/10%25%+0.25
27/03/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
26/04/20268th33/10%0%0.00
07/05/20266th50/10%0%0.00
23/05/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
21/07/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
11/08/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
01/09/20261st6/492%100%+0.08