Cabernet

6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 68

Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

71%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-27	Presque Isle Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-07-06	Presque Isle Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2025-11-12	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-09-10	Presque Isle Downs	?	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2025-08-28	Mountaineer	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2025-06-30	Mountaineer	?	2nd	0th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength43%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/01/2025	5th	9/2	76%	64%	-0.13
03/05/2025	3rd	5/1	74%	71%	-0.02
03/06/2025	4th	11/2	71%	57%	-0.14
30/06/2025	2nd	5/2	87%	80%	-0.07
28/08/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
10/09/2025	4th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
12/11/2025	3rd	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
06/07/2026	6th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
27/07/2026	7th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00