1
Midnight Musume
5yo Horse · 8-8 · OR 52
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 16/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |