One Morerep

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71

Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength52%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-03	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-22	Finger Lakes	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0
2026-06-24	Finger Lakes	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-27	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-11-19	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength62%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/09/2025	4th	9/1	53%	40%	-0.13
29/09/2025	3rd	14/1	26%	71%	+0.45
28/10/2025	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38
19/11/2025	2nd	4/1	79%	83%	+0.04
27/05/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27
24/06/2026	5th	9/2	76%	43%	-0.33
22/07/2026	4th	10/1	47%	40%	-0.07
03/08/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	67%	-0.10
08/09/2026	2nd	7/4	91%	86%	-0.05