Trinity River

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 59

Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

11%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Finger Lakes	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-09-02	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-08-11	Finger Lakes	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-07-27	Finger Lakes	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-07-13	Finger Lakes	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-06-22	Finger Lakes	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength81%

Delivery trend +2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/11/2025	4th	1/1	95%	57%	-0.38
19/11/2025	4th	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
26/11/2025	2nd	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27
22/06/2026	4th	15/8	90%	40%	-0.50
13/07/2026	5th	11/2	71%	43%	-0.28
27/07/2026	4th	11/4	86%	50%	-0.36
11/08/2026	4th	11/2	71%	50%	-0.21
02/09/2026	2nd	4/9	98%	83%	-0.14
16/09/2026	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05