3
Asleep At Eight
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-01-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 05/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |