Muscle Shoals
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 05/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |