5
Probably Flattery
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 16/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 29/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |