4
Fire Down Below
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 82
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |