5
Flowing River
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 09/06/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 30/07/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 20/08/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 27/10/2025 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |