8
Shortsinthewinter
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength65%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 30/06/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 67% | -0.26 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |