Fric And Frac
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 77
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-04-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 12/11/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 10/12/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |