2
Henry's Hope
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 83% | -0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |