IvyArcIvyArc
6

King Phoenix

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75

Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 23/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f Slo 11923/11C9C9 @ Aqueduct 17/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark17/01/2025 · OR 58 parC9 @ Aqueduct 23/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark23/02/2025 · OR 58 par23/02C9OR 58C8 @ Aqueduct 23/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 68 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark23/03/2025 · OR 68 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 66 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2025 · OR 66 par3/06C5OR 66C8 @ Aqueduct 28/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 72 · 6f 120 · below its mark28/12/2025 · OR 72 parC8 @ Aqueduct 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 66 · 7f 123 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 66 par23/01C8OR 66C5 @ Finger Lakes 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 72 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 16/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 76 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/06/2026 · OR 76 par16/06C5OR 76projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-16Finger Lakes?7th4th+3
2026-05-19Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3
2026-01-23Aqueduct?7th7th0
2025-12-28Aqueduct?8th8th0
2025-06-03Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3
2025-03-23Aqueduct?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/1123/0323/0116/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength47%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/11/20246th3/184%29%-0.56
17/01/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
23/02/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
23/03/20255th11/271%20%-0.51
03/06/20252nd11/271%75%+0.04
28/12/20258th20/10%0%0.00
23/01/20267th9/276%0%-0.76
19/05/20262nd8/158%80%+0.22
16/06/20267th4/179%0%-0.79