5
Honest Reason
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 10/11/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 25/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |