7
Miss Ellary
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 93
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-12-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 15/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |